WHO Labels Coronavirus as a Pandemic

There is fear in the stock markets. Is it justified? It doesn’t matter, the market is always right!


Just when you thought it couldn’t get any worse, the  World Health Organization Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus has labeled the coronavirus as a pandemic.  There are no immediate policy actions that are triggered when something is declared a pandemic.  Therefore, it is up to the governments  of individual nations to decide on their own response to a pandemic. As we have been discussing over the past few weeks, governments and central banks around the world have been trying to provide both monetary and fiscal stimulus to help businesses who have been affected by the coronavirus.  However, that will not stop the spread of those infected.  The WHO recommends isolation for those who have the coronavirus or believe they have it. 

The S&P 500 moved into bear territory today (moving 20% lower is the classical definition).  In doing so, it has formed a flag pattern on a 240-minute timeframe.  The target for a flag pattern is to take the length of the flagpole and add it to the breakout level.  (I add the flagpole to the top of the flag for a more conservative target).   In this case the target is 2625.  The RSI is still in neutral territory and still has room to move lower.   

Source:  Tradingview, CME, City Index

On a 60-minute timeframe, it shows that the S&P 500 has moved lower from yesterdays highs, and tested Monday’s lows.  However, in the short term, price is diverging with the RSI.  There is short-term trendline resistance above at 2820 and then resistance at yesterday’s highs of 2882.  First support at 2710, which was briefly clipped this afternoon, which is the 127.2% Fibonacci extension level from the October 3rd, 2019 lows to the February 20th highs.  Below that is Monday’s lows of 2695.25, and then the flag target of 2625.

Source: Tradingview, CME, City Index

There is fear in the stock market.  Is it justified given what we are told about the coronavirus?  It doesn’t matter!  The market is always right!


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