Market News & Analysis
Week Ahead: Have We Seen the Top in Coronavirus Cases?
Joe Perry February 8, 2020 3:32 AM
Next week will be a pivotal week in terms of discovering if the rate of increase has topped on the number of newly discovered Coronavirus cases. China’s National Health Commission said that as of Thursday, the total infection number was 31,161 and the total number of deaths was 636. However, the Global Times has been reporting that the rate of increase in infection has slowed, as most current cases have already been tested. That means we could see a lowering of new cases moving forward. In addition, they reported that the death rate of coronavirus infections nationwide is 2%, with cities in Hubei, except for Wuhan, declined to 1.3%. In Wuhan, death rate is near 4.1%. There have been unsubstantiated news stories that vaccines may soon be available. Unsubstantiated or not, markets chose to believe it, and add risk in stocks. However, commodities such as oil and copper, and commodity currencies such as the Aussie and Kiwi, are still trading need their 2020 lows. Many companies will reopen on Monday (although many people still encouraged to work from home), and hopes are that this will stem Q1 GDP losses. Today, S&P revised down their annual growth forecast for China to 5.0% from 5.7%.
With the debacle in Iowa this past week in the Democratic caucuses, long shot Pete Buttigieg pulled out the top spot with 13 delegates. Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and Joe Biden followed, each receiving 12, 8, and 6 delegates respectively. This was considered a big loss for former Vice President Joe Biden; however, the race has just begun and there’s a long way to go. This week, voters will go to the polls in New Hampshire for the first primary of election season. Buttigieg and Sanders will look to continue the momentum while Biden tries to jump back into the race. (Michael Bloomberg is also running for the democratic nomination; however, he has not been a factor yet).
Beginning of month data came in better than expected, for the most part. Global PMIs were revised higher and US and Canadian payroll data was also better than expected. The only downfall was Industrial Production today out of some European economies (Germany in particular). The second week of the month typically sees a slowdown in data releases. Expected economic highlights are as follows:
- China Inflation Rate
- China PPI
- Canadian Housing Starts and Building Permits
- UK GDP Q4
- UK Trade Balance
- Australian Consumer Confidence
- RBNZ Interest Rate Decision
- Eurozone Industrial Production
- Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- Crude Oil Inventories
- RBA Gov Lane Speech
- BOC Gov Poloz Speech
- Fed Chair Powell Testimony
- Germany GDP Q4
- Eurozone Q4
- US Retail Sales
- US Industrial Production
- US Michigan Consumer Expectations
Chart to Watch: Daily Copper
Source: Tradingview, City Index
Earlier this week, we discussed how copper was down an unprecedented 13 days in a row before bouncing with risk. After testing stops below 2.50, copper bounced into horizontal resistance, however failed from taking out the 38.2% retracement from the highs of January 16th (which was one day after the US-China Phase One trade deal was signed) to the February 3rd lows. In doing so, the base metal formed a shooting star candle, which is a one candlestick reversal formation. This also allowed for the RSI to unwind and move back into neutral territory. However, price today put in a long black bearish candle from 2.598 down to 2.544. If copper trades below 2.480, it has room to run!
This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.
GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.
In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.
GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.
Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.
Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender currency and trading of derivatives on Cryptocurrencies are currently not covered under any regulatory regime in Singapore. Consequently, investors should be aware they do not have protection under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Please ensure that you are fully aware of the risks.