US open: Futures mixed ahead of Fed decision

The Fed isn't expected to move on rates or bond purchases - this meeting will be all about guidance. Will yields pick up? Tech stocks seems to think so.

USA (1)

US futures

Dow  futures +0.1% at 32761

S&P futures -0.3% 3938

Nasdaq  futures -1.1%% at 13184

In Europe

FTSE -0.5% at 6769

Dax -0.01% at 14557

Euro Stoxx -0.2% at 3841

Learn more about trading indices

Fed set to upgrade GDP & inflation forecasts

The Federal Reserve is due to announce its monetary policy decision at 18:00 UTC. This is the first FOMC since inflation expectations started moving sharply higher. No change in monetary policy is expected.

Therefore, the Fed’s guidance and the dot plot will be the key focus. The Fed is expected to upwardly revise growth and inflation forecasts. Meanwhile the dot plot indicates no hikes are expected until 2024.  The recent jump in treasury yields, particularly the benchmark 10 year yield points to the market expecting an earlier move by the Fed.

Fed Powell will need to find a balance between sounding upbeat over the vaccine & stimulus inspired growth without heightening inflation expectations and raising bets of an earlier move by the Fed.

Should the Fed sound too upbeat, yields could rise, lifting the US Dollar and dragging stocks, particularly growth stocks lower.

My colleague Matthew Weller looks in more detail at what to expect from the Fed here

Stocks set for a mixed start, tech under pressure

After rallying 1.6% over the past two session, the tech heavy Nasdaq is pointing to a weaker start. Futures point to a 1% decline ahead of the Fed’s decision. Tech stocks have come under pressure in recent weeks when inflation expectations have risen. The US 10 year yield trades +2.4% at 1.66% once again pulling into focus valuations of growth stocks.

Stocks in focus

UBER -trades -2.5% lower pre-market after giving up its fight in the UK courts to not classify its drivers as workers. Uber is unlikely to absorb the costs associated with paying the minimum wage and benefits – meaning more expensive journeys.

Tesla – trades -3.2% lower pre-market amid growing concerns of rising competition, rising interest rates and its lofty valuation. Yesterday Volkswagen, which owns Porsche, Audi & Bentley said its aims to make 1 million EV’s this year.

FX – EUR/USD struggles at 1.19

EUR/USD – is struggling to hold onto 1.19 ahead of the FOMC. The Euro has been under pressure in recent sessions amid a sluggish vaccine rollout, escalating AstraZeneca vaccine row and rising covid cases in the region. Eurozone inflation data came in line with expectations CPI for February MoM +0.2%. Core CPI YoY 1.1% down from 1.4% in January.

GBP/USD +0.08% at 1.3897

EUR/USD trades -0.05% at 1.1893

Fiona Cincotta looks at GBP/USD price action and levels to watch ahead of the FOMC here

Oil EIA data & the Fed to decide oil’s next move

Oil head lower for a furth straight session as investors look ahead to the latest stockpile data and to the FOMC decision late.

Yesterday’s API report showed a surprise draw in crude inventories of 1.05 million barrels against expectations of a 2.7 million barrel build. The data suggests that demand is rising faster than expected following last months’ cold snap.

Attention will now turn to EIA stockpile data due later today. Expectations are for a more modest build after last week’s eye watering 13.8 million increase. A large fall in stockpiles could boost oil prices. The EIA warned that global demand won’t return to pre-pandemic levels until 2023.

Later the Fed could be responsible for further moves in oil. The dollar denominated commodity is negative correlated to the USD. Too much optimism from the Fed and oil prices could swing lower.

US crude trades -0.7% at $64.33

Brent trades -0.9% at $67.77

Learn more about trading oil here.

The complete guide to trading oil markets

Looking ahead

15:30 EIA Crude Oil Stock Change

18:00 Fed’s Rate Decision & Statement

18:30 Fed’s Press Conference

More from Indices


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.