Two trades to watch: WTI crude oil, EURUSD

Fiona Cincotta March 4, 2021 3:28 PM

WTI rises ahead of OPEC+ meeting. EUR/USD hovers around 1.2050 with all eyes on Fed Powell's speech.

Energy 14

US crude oil rises ahead of OPEC

Oil prices are on the rise for a second straight days= on the possibility that OPEC+ may decide against increasing output.

OPEC are reportedly considering rolling over production cuts into April given that he recovery in demand remains fragile.

EIA data revealed a record 21.5 million barrel build owing to the Texas deep freeze

Where next for crude oil prices?

WTI fell out of its month long ascending channel at the start of the week. 

WTI has pushed back above its 20 sma at 60.30 on the daily chart after briefly dropping below the support in the previous session. However, a move back over the lower band of the ascending channel at 62.10 is needed to convince the bulls. The RSI is supportive of further gains.

Failure to break back into the channel could support the formation of a topping patter and could see the bears target support at 60.00 the 20 sma and key psychological level before eyeing horizontal support at 5875. Abreak below 57.00 low 12th Feb could see the bearish move gain momentum.

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EUR/USD hovers around 1.2050 ahead of Jerome Powell

US treasury bond yields are back on the rise at 1.48% lifting the USD.

Jerome Powell is due to speak at 17:00 UTC. So far Powell has shrugged off higher yields and rising inflation expectations as a sign of better growth prospects.

However, after Brainard’s comments regarding the pace of the move in yields there are growing expectations that the Fed could step in.

Eurozone retail sales & US initial jobless gains also in focus.

Where next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD has picked up off the overnight low of 1.2043 however remains on the back foot -0.05% and below its 20 & 50 sma suggesting a bearish bias which is supported by bearish MACD signals. 

Sellers may wait for a move below $1.20 key psychological level before opening a position. The pair could then test support at the  yearly low 1.1950 before declines accelerate towards support at 1.19.

On the upside 1.21 the 20 sma and round number offers strong resistance. A break-through here could open the door to 1.2145 the 50 sma before bulls look towards 1.22.

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