Two trades to watch: Gold, USD/CAD

Gold edges higher, looks to US retail sales to further direction. USD/CAD is holding steady ahead of Canadian & US jobs data.

Charts (4)

Gold looks to US retail sales for direction 

Gold is edging higher on Thursday, clawing back yesterday’s losses, when gold bulls failed to capitalise on US Dollar weakness 

The precious metal trades within a familiar range and awaits US retail sales for a potential breakout. 

Expectations are for a blowout 6.3% jump in sales in March rebounding from -3.5% decline in February. 

Where next for the Gold price? 

Gold trades at the high of the day, having pushed over the 50 EMA on the 4 hour chart and is testing the 200 EMA . 

Gold continues to trade within its monthly symmetrical triangle. The fact that it remains above the midway point in the triangle to supportive to a bullish setup. 

For the recovery to continue, gold bulls need to break above the 200 EMA and horizontal support at 1742 before attacking 1747 the upper side of the triangle. Beyond here gold buyers could look towards the monthly high of 1760. 

On the flip side, sellers could encounter support at the 50 EMA which coincides with the mid-point of the triangle at 1737.  A downside break below the lower triangle support line at 1730 could spark a deeper selloff to 1725 the weekly low and 1706 the monthly low. 

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USD/CAD steady ahead of Canadian & US jobs data 

After two straight losing sessions, USD/CAD is holding steady. 

A strong rise in oil prices and weaker US treasury yields dragged the pair lower this week. 

Canadian ADP employment change data is due in addition to manufacturing sales. 

The US data deluge includes retail sales, initial jobless claims and industrial production 

Where next for USD/CAD? 

The pair trades below its descending trendline, its 20 EMA and 50 EMA on the daily chart, indicating an established bearish trend. 

Whilst the move lower appears to be running out of momentum, the RSI does still indicate further losses could be had. 

Bears need to break meaningfully below 1.25 round figure for a deeper selloff towards 1.2450 and 1.2365 the post pandemic low. 

Any recovery would need to take the 20 EMA at 1.2550 and the 50 EMA at 1.26. A move above here could negate the bearish trend. 

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