Two trades to watch: GBP/USD, WTI oil

GBP/USD rises post jobs data, ahead of retail sales. Crude oil rises ahead of oil reports.

Charts (3)

GBP/USD rises post jobs data, ahead of retail sales

UK unemployment fell to 4.3% in the three months to September, down from 4.5% and ahead of forecasts of 4.4%.

The claimant count also fell from 5.2% to 5.1% in October even as the furlough scheme came to an end.

The data comes after BoE’s Andrew Bailey yesterday hinted to wards raising interest rates saying that he was uncomfortable with inflation at these levels.

Meanwhile US retail sales will be in focus for USD traders. Expectations are for sales to rise 1.1%, after rising 0.7% in the previous month. Investors will be looking for signs that rising prices and falling morale is hurting spending.

Learn more about when to trade fx pairs

Where next for GBP/USD?

GBP/USD has been trending lower since early June, it trades below its 50 & 100 sma on the daily chart. After finding support at 1.3353 the pair has been extending a rebound, it is currently testing resistance at the 3 week descending trendline. A break above here is needed to bring 1.35 the round number and November 5 high into play.

Sellers meanwhile will be looking for a move below 1.3412 the September low to bring 1.3353 the yearly low into focus.

gbpusd chart

Crude oil rises ahead of oil report

Crude oil has traded under pressure since US CPI data revealed a surge in inflation which added to speculation that the Biden administration could release strategic reserves in order to ease rising petrol prices and inflation.

Concerns surrounding tight inventories are underpinning prices, API data is due later. Reserves are low and OPEC is only increasing output at a sluggish rate.

Rising COVID cases and renewed lockdown restrictions in Austria and Holland could limit any upside to oil.

The IEA oil market report is also due today. Last week OPEC cuts its demand outlook by 330,000barrels per day.

Learn more about oil

Where next for crude oil prices?

Oil trades relatively range bound capped on the lower side by the 50 sma on the 4 hour chart at 77.93 and on the upper side by the 3 week falling trend line.

The RSI is neutral as oil awaits its next catalyst.

Buyers could look for a move over the 20 sna at 81.80 in order to bring 83.80 the falling trend line resistance into play and the post pandemic high of 85.26.

Meanwhile sellers could look for a move below the 50 sma at 77.93 and 77.60 the November low for further losses towards 74.80.

Oil chart


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