Two trades to watch: EUR/USD, S&P500

EUR/USD hovers around 1.16 ahead of ECB rate decision. S&P 500 eases back from record highs GDP & earnings in focus

Charts (1)

EUR/USD hovers around 1.16 ahead of ECB

The ECB are due to announce their monetary policy decision today as EUR/USD trades near it

The central bank is expected keep interest rates on hold. So far the ECB has not offered a tapering timeline. However, with inflation at a 13 year high, President Christine Lagarde could tee-up for a December announcement.

So far policy makers have played down high inflation, sticking religiously to the transitory script. However, with mounting inflation and slowing growth Christine Lagarde will need to convince the market that the slow, steady approach to normalization is achievable.

US Q3 GDP is due to be released. QoQ growth of 2.7% is forecast down from 6.7%

Learn more about the ECB

Where next for EUR/USD?

EUR/USD trades below its falling trendline dating back to late May and is hovering around its lowest level in over a year.

On the 4 hour chart EUR/USD has traded within a tight range ahead of today’s meeting. Across the week the pair has been limited of the upside by the 50 sma on the 4 hour chart whilst the lower side have been limited by 1.1585. The RSI is also neutral at around 50.

Sellers will be looking for a move below 1.1585 the weekly low to bring 1.1523 into focus and fresh year to date lows.

Buyers, meanwhile, will look for a move above 1.1625 to expose the 200 sma at 1.1655. It would take a move above 1.1675 for the buyers to gain traction.

EURUSD chart

S&P eases back from record highs GDP & earnings in focus

After surging to an all time high at the start of the week, the S&P 500 has eased lower

Earnings season saw an encouraging start. However, we are starting to see a divergence play out whereby tech stocks are outperforming, and manufacturers are being impacted by supply chain bottlenecks and part shortages.

US GDP is due to reveal 2.7% QoQ growth, as the reopening boom is being hampered by supply chain issues, labour shortages and rising prices.

Learn more about the S&P500

Where next for the S&P?

Where next for the S&P?

The S&P rallied to an all-time high of 4598 and has since corrected lower bringing the RSI out of overbought territory.

The MACD has turned bearish, however support at 4550, the weekly low is holding up for now. Should the support hold buyers would look for a move back toward 4598 and fresh all time highs.

Sellers would need to break below here in order to expose 4535 the 50 sma on the 4 hour chart. It would take a move below 4485 to negate the near term uptrend and a move below 4450 for sellers to gain traction.

S&P 500 chart

How to trade with City Index

Follow these easy steps to start trading with City Index today:

  1. Open a City Index account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
  2. Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels
  4. Place the trade.




This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.