Two trades to watch: DAX, GBP/USD

Dax drifts away from all time high. German factory orders unexpectedly fall. GBP/USD trades under pressure amid rising covid cases & Brexit concerns.


Indices search for direction -German Factory orders unexpectedly fall,  

German factory orders fell -0.2% MoM in April, down from 3% rise in March and falling short of 1% increase forecast.  

The market mood is mixed following the US NFP miss on Friday and after China exports surged but also missed expectations. 

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Where next for the Dax? 

Dax is easing slightly lower in quiet trade at the start of the week. It continues to hover around the All-time high reached on Friday of 15707.  

The Dax trades above its multi-month ascending trendline and above its 50 & 100 sma on the 4 hour chart showing an established bullish trend. 

However, the MACD could be forming a bearish cross over. 

It would take a move below 15460 to negate the near term uptrend. Below here support can be seen at 15350 low May 27 and 15250 the ascending trendline support. 

Resistance is seen at 15700/10 the all time high with the buyers then targeting 15800 ahead of 16000. 

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GBP/USD weighed down by Covid, Brexit

GBP/USD trades lower on Monday, failing to extend Friday’s gains as covid and Brexit concerns return.  

Doubts are growing over whether the June 21st Freedom Day will go ahead after Mat Hancock health secretary hinted the date could be pushed back as  covid cases rise steeply in UK. 

Brexit talks could drag on the Pound as both the UK and EUE prepare for talks this week on a part of the Brexit deal that governs trade with Northern Ireland. Since the UK left the EU, relations have deteriorated between the two sides with both accusing the other of acting in bad faith over the Northern Ireland protocol. 

The US Dollar is heading higher tracing yields higher as attention turns to US CPI data later in the week. 10 year yields are at 1.57% but this is still below where yields were before Friday’s disappointing NFP report. 

Where next for GBP/USD ?

GBP/USD is trending lower, trading below its descending trendline dating back to the start of the month. It has fallen below its 50 & 100 sma on the 4 hour chart. 

The RSI is pointing southwards in bearish territory suggesting there could more downside to come. 

A break below support at 1.4090/80 could open the door to a deeper selloff towards 1.4050 the 200 sma. 

Meanwhile a move above 1.4165 the descending trendline and the 50 sma could negate the near term bearish trend and see buyers target 1.42 round number. 

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