Market News & Analysis

Top Story

Strong Non-Farm Payroll and Weaker ISM Manufacturing Data Send Mixed Signals

The US Nonfarm Payrolls Change was released earlier today with the US economy adding 128,000 jobs to the economy, beating expectations of 89,000.  October’s numbers were revised higher as well, from 136,000 to 180,000.  The revision makes October’s headline data even stronger. The inflation component was just as strong. Although the headline Average Hourly Earnings number was a slight miss at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected, September’s number was revised from 0% to 0.4%!!  Although this data is strong, the next Fed meeting isn’t until mid-December

Contrary to the NFP data, the ISM Manufacturing PMI for October came in slightly worse at 48.3 vs 48.9 expected and 47.8 last.  Below 50 means that the economy is contracting.  This is the third straight month of contraction. Even more worrisome is the ISM Manufacturing Price Index, which fell to 45.5 vs expectation of 49.9 and 49.7 last. 

So, the data on the day is mixed…better employment, weaker manufacturing, mixed inflation.  According to the CME FedWatch Tool, there is currently only a 14% of a rate cut at the December 11th meeting.  However, there is a lot of data remaining, including  November’s data for NFP and ISM.  The stock  market doesn’t appear to be concerned about the ISM data, as the S&P 500 Futures in putting in all time new highs above 3060 after this mornings data dump. 

Source: Tradingview, CME, City Index

Not to beat a dead horse, but as stocks continue to put in all time highs, its tough not to write about them.  As S&Ps break through the long-term upward sloping trendline dating back to October of last year, the next resistance is the shorter-term upward sloping channel line from October 1st near 3066.  Above that S&Ps have room to run to 3105, which is the 161.8% Fibonacci extension from the May 1st highs to the June 3rd lows.  Horizontal support comes in near 3045.  Next level is the bottom of the channel trendline at 3027.

Source: Tradingview, CME, City Index

With the bid on stocks, the DXY is trading lower on the day and is testing previous lows near 97.14.  The selloff from October 8th looks like if may have formed a flag pattern, with a target near 96.  If price breaks through 97.14, the next level of support is 96.69, which is the 78.6% retracement from the lows in June to the October 1st highs.  Below that support is the June lows at 95.87.  Resistance is that the bottom trendline of the flag pattern near 97.70, and above that the longer term trendline and top of the flag near 98.10.

Source: Tradingview, City Index


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

Important Notice:

Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender currency and trading of derivatives on Cryptocurrencies are currently not covered under any regulatory regime in Singapore. Consequently, investors should be aware they do not have protection under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Please ensure that you are fully aware of the risks.