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Overstretched GBP/JPY rally set for a multi-week corrective decline over Brexit limbo

Medium-term technical outlook on GBP/JPY



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Key Levels (1 to 3 weeks)

Intermediate resistance: 140.45

Pivot (key resistance): 141.40

Supports: 135.40 & 134.00/133.55

Next resistance: 143.20/70

Directional Bias (1 to 3 weeks)

The recent 11 big figure rally from 130.40 low from 08 Oct to 141.50 high printed on 17 Oct 2019 is now at risk of shaping a multi-week corrective decline to retrace a portion of the up move from 12 Aug 2019 low to 21 Oct 2019 high.

Bearish bias below 141.40 pivotal resistance for a potential decline to target the next medium-term supports at 135.40 follow by 134.00/133.55 next before another potential multi-week upleg sequence materialises to test the upper boundary of the major “Expanding Wedge” range configuration in place since Feb 2018 high.

On the other hand, a clearance above 141.40 sees a further sequence up towards the 143.20/70 (1.382 Fibonacci expansion of the up move from 12 Aug 2019 low & major “Expanding Wedge” resistance).

Key elements

  • The daily RSI oscillator has started to inch down and a test on an extreme overbought level of 81. In addition, the 4-hour RSI oscillator has shaped a bearish divergence signal at its overbought region as price action of the cross pair has continued to shape “higher highs” from 11 Oct to 21 Oct 2019. These observations suggest the recent medium-term upside momentum of price action has started to wane.
  • Elliot Wave/fractal analysis also supports a potential corrective/mean reversion decline at this juncture. From its 12 Aug 2019 low of 126.55, the cross pair has completed a 5- wave up move sequence; labelled as 1/, 2/, 3/,4/ & 5/ in the 4-hour chart with a Fibonacci expansion cluster right at around the 17/21 Oct 2019 swing high area. These observations suggest that the next price action sequence may be a decline to retrace at least a third of the recent up move from 12 Aug 2019 low.
  • The significant medium-term support zone of 134.00/133.55 is defined by the 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent up move from 12 Aug low to 17 Oct 2019 high, minor congestion area from 23 Sep to 30 Sep 2019 and the ascending trendline from 03 Sep 2019 low.

Charts are from eSignal

 

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