Market News & Analysis
NZD/JPY and AUD/JPY Are Coiling Just Off Their Highs
Matt Simpson January 2, 2020 10:45 AM
Assuming we don’t see a repeat of January 2019’s yen flash-crash, we’re looking for these pairs to extend their bullish trends.
It was one year tomorrow that JPY pairs exhibited extreme volatility in a low liquidity environment. Given that Japanese exchanges will remain closed until Monday, liquidity is expected to remain low for the remainder of the week during Asian hours which could leave JPY pairs vulnerable to another flash-crash. But hopefully, prices will continue to coil and wait for volumes to return, before extending their trends.
NZD/JPY: The trend remains firmly bullish and prices have found support above the 10-day eMA. It could be argued that it requires a deeper pullback but, until price action presents us with one, we’re to assume the trend will remain in place. With prices coiling up in a potential bull-flag formation, we’re looking for this to break higher.
However, take note that gap resistance between 73.47-73.62 has so far been respected, so we’d prefer to see a break above this resistance zone before assuming trend continuation.
- Trend remains bullish above 71.73 but bulls could consider dips above 72.67 support (as this could allow for a better reward to risk ratio heading into 73.62 resistance)
- Alternatively, bulls could wait for a break above 73.62 and keep an open upside target in line with the dominant trend.
AUD/JPY: Whilst its advance has not kept up at the same pace of NZD/JPY, AUD/JPY is trading within a bullish channel and now coiling up near the highs. With it holding above the 10 and 20-day eMA’s, we’re also looking for this to break higher.
- Near-term bias remains bullish above 75.98 support
- A break below 75.98 warns of a deeper retracement, and the daily trend remains bullish above the lower bullish trendline and / or the 74.85 low.
- Initial target is around 77050, near a cluster of prior support levels.
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