Gold continues to consolidate: When will it finally break out?

See why the current macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable for gold prices

Gold 5

With competing “stores of value” like silver and bitcoin (…and even more esoteric investments like art and rare sports cards) grabbing all the headlines lately, interest in buying gold has waned.

Over the last six months, the world’s oldest store of value has spent most of its time consolidating between $1800 and $2000, frustrating bulls and bears alike. Notably, this period also includes a resurgence of the worst global pandemic in a century, general weakness in the US dollar, rioters storming the US Capitol, and policymakers across the globe committing to ongoing stimulus for years to come; in other words, gold has failed to rally despite many developments that would traditionally drive the yellow metal higher.

Historically, real interest rates have been one of the best indicators for the price of gold. Calculated as the yield on inflation-indexed bond, real interest rates represent the estimated opportunity cost of holding gold.

When real interest rates are low or negative, investment alternatives like cash and bonds tend to provide are less attractive, pushing investors to seek alternative ways to protect the value of their wealth. On the other hand, when real interest rates are high, strong returns are possible in cash and bonds, and the appeal of holding a yellow metal with few industrial uses diminishes.

If you are interested in investing in physical precious metals, check out CoinInvest.

Beyond the opportunity cost of holding gold, interest rates also play a role in the cost of funds when buying gold on margin, as many traders do. One easy way to see a proxy for real interest rates in the United States, the world’s largest economy, is to look at the yield on Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). As the chart below shows, the yield on 10-year TIPS have generally fell over the last two years to yield roughly negative 1% as of writing, theoretically a tailwind for gold prices:

Source: St. Louis Fed

Despite the disappointing price action (for bulls) so far, the current macroeconomic backdrop remains favorable for gold prices.

Turning our attention to the chart, we can see that gold has retraced just 50% of its Q2-3 2020 rally so far, indicating that from the medium-term perspective, bulls remain in control of prices for now. If that support level near $1760 is broken, a deeper retracement toward $1700 (the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement) or $1600 (78.6%) may be next.

On the other hand, while the generally supportive fundamental backdrop may be reason enough for some traders to buy, more conservative investors may want to wait for a bullish breakout above resistance near $1960 to confirm that the market is recognizing the bullish case. If that near-term resistance level gives way, Gold could quickly extend up to its record highs near $2075 or higher in short order:

Source: TradingView, GAIN Capital

Learn more about gold and silver trading opportunities.


More from Gold

Disclaimer

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.