Market News & Analysis

Top Story

Featured Trade: AUD/JPY testing resistance as BOJ looms

Short-term technical outlook on AUD/JPY (15 Mar)


click to enlarge charts

Key elements

  • The recent minor rebound from its 08 Mar 2019 low of 77.70 has led the AUD/JPY cross pair to test a significant short-term resistance zone at 79.25/35 which is defined by the former “Expanding Wedge” range support from 15 Feb 2019 low, the minor descending trendline from 26 Feb 2019 high, the upper boundary of a minor bearish “Ascending Wedge” in motion since 08 Mar 2019 low and a Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster (the 76.4% retracement of the recent slide from 26 Feb 2019 high to 08 Mar 2019 low & the recent rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 12 Mar 2019 minor high projected from 13 Mar 2019 minor low.
  • The 1-hour Stochastic oscillator has reached an extreme overbought level which increases the odds of a minor retracement in price action of the recent rebound seen from 08 Mar 2019 low.
  • The next significant near-term support rests at 78.35 which is defined by the minor congestion zone of 09/13 Mar 2019 and the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 15 Mar 2019 current intraday high of 79.21 seen in the Asian session.

Key Levels (1 to 3 days)

Pivot (key resistance): 79.35

Supports: 78.80 (trigger) & 78.35

Next resistance: 79.85 (key medium-term pivot)

Conclusion

If the 79.35 key short-term pivotal resistance is not surpassed and a break below 78.80 (minor “Ascending Wedge” support) is likely to reinforce a decline to target the 78.35 support in the first step in the coming days.

However, a clearance above 79.35 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to challenge the 79.85 key medium-term pivotal resistance (the minor swing high areas of 21/26 Feb 2019 & the pull-back resistance of the former long-term secular triangle range support from Oct 2008 low).

Charts are from eSignal



Disclaimer

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

Important Notice:

Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender currency and trading of derivatives on Cryptocurrencies are currently not covered under any regulatory regime in Singapore. Consequently, investors should be aware they do not have protection under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Please ensure that you are fully aware of the risks.