European Open: USD/NOK Remains Appealing to Bears
Matt Simpson September 2, 2021 12:55 PM
Bears have been the dominant force on USD/NOK these past few weeks, and they may not be done with the pair just yet.
- Australia's ASX 200 index fell by -64.6 points (-0.86%) and currently trades at 7,462.50
- Japan's Nikkei 225 index has risen by 75.47 points (0.27%) and currently trades at 28,525.96
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has risen by 19.66 points (0.08%) and currently trades at 26,047.95
UK and Europe:
- UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently down -4.5 points (-0.06%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,145.34
- Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently down -5 points (-0.12%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,222.27
- Germany's DAX futures are currently down -39 points (-0.25%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,785.29
- DJI futures are currently down -14 points (-0.482%)
- S&P 500 futures are currently down -0.25 points (0%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -2.75 points (-0.06%)
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It was a mixed picture for Asian equities overnight as traders prepared for two key US employment reports over the next two days. The Nikkei 225 rose to a 6-week high and found resistance at the monthly R1 pivot and trend resistance (projected for the March high). As a Doji formed it suggests a pause in trend or retracement but it is one to monitor for a potential breakout. Conversely, the ASX 200 fell over 1% as BHP and miners weighed on the broader index, with cases rising notably in NSW and VIC. The index tested its long-term trend support line, closing back below 7500. So this is also one to watch for a breakout, but to the downside.
FTSE 350: Market Internals
FTSE 350: 4142.37 (0.42%) 01 September 2021
- 248 (70.45%) stocks advanced and 90 (25.57%) declined
- 61 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 0 fell to new lows
- 77.27% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 82.39% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
- 24.72% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
- + 8.82% - IP Group PLC (IPO.L)
- + 8.00% - Petropavlovsk PLC (POG.L)
- + 7.71% - Tyman PLC (TYMN.L)
- -3.80% - WH Smith PLC (SMWH.L)
- -3.31% - Ashmore Group PLC (ASHM.L)
- -2.90% - Chrysalis Investments Ltd (CHRY.L)
Forex: Tight ranges overnight
Volatility remained low overnight with a lack of market-moving news, and traders are now waiting for the latest set of employment data from the US.
With APD employment falling incredibly short of expectations, then the US dollar could find itself under additional pressure should further signs of weakness appear in today’s employment claims report. Currently, initial and continual claims sit around 17-month lows and only minor adjustments are forecast for today.
EUR/GBP is yet to convincingly break above the weekly R1 pivot (0.8600) but prices held near yesterday’s high overnight so it still shows the potential to break higher from here. Out bias remains bullish above the 0.8542 low, although the 0.8565 low could also be used to fine-tune management.
USD/NOK has fallen over -5% since printing a double top on the 20th August. It has tried to build a base around the 200-day eMA so a minor bounce from current levels is a potential scenario, yet momentum currently favours new lows overall.
A higher low has formed on the four-hour chart although prices are holding beneath the 0.8717 low (for now). As we’re currently in a 3-wave countertrend move we’d prefer to fade into bounces towards resistance areas, such as the 50% retracement area of 61.8% Fibonacci level near the 15th August low.
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Commodities edge lower.
Commodities were broadly lower yesterday with the CRB commodity basket falling -0.6% after bullish momentum failed to retest the 2021 high earlier this week. We see the move as corrective at this stage and the daily trend remains bullish overall.
Oil prices were slightly lower overnight after OPEC+ agreed to gradually increase supply and reports that Iran plans to ignore US sanctions and increase output.
Gold prices continued to consolidate in a tight range, and unless tonight’s employment data can stir things up then we may need to wait until tomorrow’s NFP report.
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