European Open: USD Stands Firm, UK Retail Sales Up Next

There was very little in the way of retracements for dollar bulls overnight, as traders held onto their positions whilst the dollar sat pretty at its 9-month high.

Charts (1)

Asian Indices:

  • Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 8.8 points (0.12%) and currently trades at 7,473.40
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -66.57 points (-0.19%) and currently trades at 34,894.12
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has fallen by -671.64 points (-2.65%) and currently trades at 24,644.69

UK and Europe:

  • UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 20 points (0.28%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,078.86
  • Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 1 points (0.02%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,125.71
  • Germany's DAX futures are currently down -7 points (-0.04%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,758.81

US Futures:

  • DJI futures are currently down -282.12 points (-0.79%)
  • S&P 500 futures are currently down -10.25 points (-0.07%)
  • Nasdaq 100 futures are currently down -7.25 points (-0.16%)


Learn how to trade indices


Asian indices lower, futures mixed

In a retaliatory move, the US has limited Chinese passenger planes to 40% capacity after the Chinese government imposed similar limits to four United Airline flight. The China A50 is the weakest index overnight, falling -3% and is currently -5.5% lower this week. The Hang Seng and CSI300 also fell -2.9% and -2.4% respectively. Japan’s share markets also remained under selling pressure as economically sensitive companies dragged the broader markets lower. The Nikkei us down -0.7% and the TOPCI has fallen -0.4%. The ASX 200 is effectively flat at 0.08% and the STI has outperformed with a 0.7% gain. US futures have opened lower led by the Russell 2000 small cap index. FTSE futures are a touch higher whilst DAX futures are flat.

It was the FTSE’s most bearish session in a month yesterday, falling -1.5% to a 2-week by the close, after hefty gap lower at the open. Futures markets suggests I could open higher, around 7083 but bears may be tempted to fade into minor rallies below the 7100 area and re-target the 7,000 low.



FTSE 350: Market Internals


FTSE 350: 4138.53 (-0.16%) 17 August 2021

  • 214 (60.97%) stocks advanced and 120 (34.19%) declined
  • 37 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 4 fell to new lows
  • 75.5% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
  • 75.5% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 25.36% of stocks closed above their 20-day average

Outperformers:

  • + 11.2%   -  Network International Holdings PLC  (NETW.L) 
  • + 7.11%   -  Redrow PLC  (RDW.L) 
  • + 5.94%   -  Ibstock PLC  (IBST.L) 

Underperformers:

  • -7.02%   -  Balfour Beatty PLC  (BALF.L) 
  • -5.94%   -  BHP Group PLC  (BHPB.L) 
  • -4.85%   -  Burberry Group PLC  (BRBY.L) 


Forex: USD holds onto gains

Overnight moves were corrective in nature (against the prior day’s trends) which allowed the heavily sold New Zealand dollar to lift itself ever so slightly from its lows over the last couple of hours. However, not helping a bullish case whatsoever is news that the outbreak has spread beyond Auckland and entered Wellington, and that new cases has risen to 31. The next days are critical for New Zealand (and therefore NZD) as we’ll find how long lockdowns will inevitably be extended.

The US dollar index traded slightly lower overnight but remains just off of its 9-month high. There’s no major economic data scheduled today for the US, although the Fed’s Kaplan is participating in a Q+A session on “Economic Developments and Implications for Monetary Policy” at 16:00 BST. And that could be a mover for EUR/USD (and the US dollar in general) if more details for tapering are dropped.


EUR/USD bounced higher from the weekly S2 pivot in line with yesterday’s bias, as part of a countertrend move. Prices then found resistance at the March 2021 low before rolling over once more. The hourly trend remains bearish and prices have been consolidating in a potential bear flag overnight. But from here, our bias remains bearish beneath 1.1704 and for a break to new lows.

German producer prices are expected to have risen 0.8% in July, down from 1.2% in June, and they are released at 07:00 BST alongside UK retail sales. Given last month’s sales data covered the period where the UK had just re-emerged from lockdown, it’ plausible to expect softer retail sales today. They are forecast to have risen 0.5% m/m compared with 0.5% previously.


Learn how to trade forex


Commodities: Metals bears take a breather

Copper futures have retraced and sits around 3.5c from yesterday’s high. A retracement is likely needed but our bias remains bearish beneath the 4.16  - 4.20 resistance zone.

Gold is holding up to dollar strength quite well and trades in a potential bull flag. Obviously, we’d need to see a weaker dollar for it to stand any chance of breaking higher towards 1800 – 1805 (200-day eMA).

Silver has gapped lower at the open which reinforces our view the corrective high has been seen at 23.95. Our bias remains bearish beneath 24.0.

WTI has seen a minor rebound from its 62.36 low but our bias remains bearish beneath 65.0.


Up Next (Times in BST)

You can view all the scheduled events for today using our economic calendar, and keep up to date with the latest market news and analysis here.


How to trade with City Index

Follow these easy steps to start trading with City Index today:

  1. Open a City Index account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
  2. Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
  4. Place the trade.


More from Commodities

Disclaimer

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.