European Open: Remember Evergrande? It Just Rallied 33%
Matt Simpson September 23, 2021 1:46 PM
That’s no typo either. At time of writing the Chinese Property Developer, which struck markets with fears of contagion this week, is on track for its best day ever.
- Australia's ASX 200 index rose by 76.9 points (1.05%) and currently trades at 7,373.80
- Japan's Nikkei 225 index has fallen by -1533.07 points (-0.51%) and currently trades at 29,686.68
- Hong Kong's Hang Seng index has risen by 219.48 points (0.91%) and currently trades at 24,441.02
UK and Europe:
- UK's FTSE 100 futures are currently up 26.5 points (0.38%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7,109.87
- Euro STOXX 50 futures are currently up 23 points (0.56%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 4,173.19
- Germany's DAX futures are currently up 69 points (0.45%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 15,575.74
- DJI futures are currently up 338.48 points (1%)
- S&P 500 futures are currently up 34 points (0.22%)
- Nasdaq 100 futures are currently up 12.25 points (0.28%)
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Evergrande, never bland!
The Hong Kong stock exchange reopened after yesterday’s public holiday to see Evergrande (3333) gap higher by round 10% and rally almost 33% by today’s high. Still, the move needs to be taken in context of where it came from. It has fallen around -93% from its 2020 high of 27.95 down to a low of 2.06 last week, and it is arguably easier to add a third from such low numbers after such a low fall (it wasn’t far off being a penny stock). And whilst Jerome Powell soothed contagion fears at yesterday’s press conference, Beijing injected liquidity to support markets and Evergrande did vow to pay (some) of its debt today, this saga is still far from over. Assuming they miss today’s additional US $88 million debt payment, it simply buys them another 30 days and they have other debts to service as well.
Elsewhere, the returns may not have been so extreme overall but stocks followed Wall Street higher. The ASX 200 rose around 1% with the Hang Seng and Nikkei futures up around 0.8%.
FTSE 350: Market Internals
FTSE 350: 4096.23 (1.47%) 22 September 2021
- 249 (70.94%) stocks advanced and 86 (24.50%) declined
- 18 stocks rose to a new 52-week high, 7 fell to new lows
- 71.79% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
- 56.41% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
- 15.1% of stocks closed above their 20-day average
- + 10.56% - Oxford BioMedica PLC (OXB.L)
- + 6.89% - Antofagasta PLC (ANTO.L)
- + 6.76% - John Wood Group PLC (WG.L)
- -6.75% - Jtc PLC (JTC.L)
- -4.56% - PZ Cussons PLC (PZC.L)
- -3.87% - Bridgepoint Group PLC (BPTB.L)
Forex: Flash PMI’s, SNB and BOE meetings up next
GBP picked up overnight with risk assets on Fed, China and Evergrande optimism. Today’s main events are a host of flash Markit PMI’s across Europe and US which begins with France at 07:45, Germany at 08:30 and Europe at 09:00. Oh, and we have the SNB policy rate at 08:30 but there are no expectations of a policy change today.
UK PMI data is then scheduled for 09:30 ahead of this month’s BOE (The Bank of England) at 12:00. Whilst there were hopes for a hawkish meeting, exponentially rising energy costs of recent weeks is likely to see the BOE hold back today as the likelihood of weak growth in GDP appears strong. Still, with several GBP pairs sitting at key support levels it may take a dovish meeting to see further selling pressure. We therefore have a neutral view on GBP today.
USD/CHF is of interest for potential bullish setups. In the US session we then have jobless claims, retail sales and flash PMI data to look forward to.
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Copper to extend its rally form yesterday?
Copper futures have remained above $4.00 despite Evergrande woes fanning growth fears (and dwindling demand for copper). Now that fear has taken a back seat it leaves potential for copper to continue higher over the near-term. A 3-bar bullish reversal formed yesterday (Morning Star) which respected the 200-day eMA, monthly S1, weekly S2 pivot points and held above $4.00. It trades just below the centre point of the 4.00 – 4.435 range but prices have held near yesterday’s highs, so we’re hoping support can be build above (or around) 4.18 before continuing higher today.
View today’s video: WTI Bulls Build Their Case, Fed Gives USD a Tailwind
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