Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Wed 08 May)

USD/JPY medium-term uptrend damaged, further potential downside ahead.

EUR/USD – 1.1260 remains the key short-term resistance

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  • Traded sideways below the 1.1210/15 intermediate resistance as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap). No change, 1.1260 remains the key short-term pivotal resistance and added 1.1165 as the downside trigger level (minor ascending support from 26 Apr 2019 low) to reinforce the start of a potential impulsive downleg to retest 1.1120 before targeting 1.1060/1040 next (Fibonacci expansion & lower boundary of descending channel from 20 Mar 2019 high).
  • However, an hourly close above 1.1260 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective push up towards the key 1.1320 medium-term resistance.  

GBP/USD – Push up within range

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  • Drifted down by 87 pips from yesterday, 07 May Asian session high of 1.3131 and managed to stage a bounce later in the U.S. session right at the 1.3040 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report.
  • The hourly RSI oscillator has exited from its oversold region and shows further upside potential before it reaches an extreme overbought level. Maintain bullish bias with 1.3040 remains the key short-term pivotal support and added 1.3090 as upside trigger level to reinforce a potential push up to target next intermediate resistance at 1.3190 (03/04 Apr 2019 minor swing high & 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 13 Mar 2019 high to 25 Apr 2019 low)
  • However, an hourly close below 1.3040 revives the bearish tone for a push down to retest 1.2870.

USD/JPY – Medium-term uptrend damaged, further potential downside in progress

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  • Drifted down lower as expected and broke below the ascending support from the 03 Jan 2019 flash crash low that has damaged its medium-term uptrend. Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance at 110.55 (minor descending trendline from 03 May 2019, post NFP & 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the on-going slide from 24 Apr 2019 high of 112.40) for a further potential push down to target the 25 Mar 2019 swing low of 109.75 and 109.45/30 next (Fibonacci expansion/retracement cluster).
  • However, an hourly close above 110.55 negates the bearish tone for corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 111.10 (gap down formed on 06 May & descending trendline from 24 Apr 2019 high).

AUD/USD – Sideways

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  • Challenged the 0.7035 key short-term pivotal resistance (printed an intraday high of 0.7048 post RBA) before it drifted down towards the 0.7000 handle. Mix elements, prefer to turn neutral between 0.7045 and 0.6995. An hourly close above 0.7045 sees a further corrective bounce within range to target the key medium-term resistance at 0.7110.
  • On the flipside, an hourly close below 0.6995 revives the bearish tone to retest 0.6980/6960 before targeting 0.6920 (lower boundary of the minor descending channel from 17 Apr 2019 high & Fibonacci expansion).

Charts are from eSignal


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