Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 04 Jun)

Mix bag. Further JPY strength, watch EUR/USD & AUD/USD key resistances at 1.1320 & 0.7010 respectively.

EUR/USD – Rallied up towards key resistance

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  • We had highlighted in our previous reports (click here to recap) that the downside momentum has started to wane since the failure to break below the 26 April/23 May range support of 1.1120. Indeed, the pair has staged the expected correct rebound and hit the target/resistance at 1.245/1260 (printed a high of 1.1262 in yesterday, 03 Jun U.S. session).
  • Right now, it is hovering below a key zone level of 1.2910/1320 with the short-term hourly RSI oscillator that is approaching an extreme overbought level of 84. Flip back to a bearish bias below key short-term pivotal resistance at 1.1320 with 1.1215 as the downside trigger level to reinforce a potential push down to retest the 1.1120 range support.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.1320 negates the bearish tone for a further squeeze up towards the key medium-term resistance at 1.1420 (also the major descending trendline in place since 15 Feb 2018 & the 20 Mar 2019 swing high area

GBP/USD – Further potential residual corrective bounce

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  • The pair has whipsawed around the 1.2600 level on last Fri, 31 May before it traded back up and continued to incher in yesterday, 05 Jun U.S. session (printed a high of 1.2674). Maintain bullish bias above 1.2610 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential corrective rebound to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.2785 (21 May 2019 minor swing high & the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the recent decline form 03 May high to 31 May 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 1.2610 resumes the slide towards the major support at 1.2545/2530 (also the primary ascending range support in place since 07 Oct 2016 low).

USD/JPY – Bearish breakdown below multi-year primary ascending range support

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  • Drifted down lower as expected and staged a bearish breakdown below a former primary ascending range support from Jun 2016 low. Short-term momentum reading remains negative as indicated by the hourly RSI oscillator.
  • Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 108.65 (also the pull-back of the former primary ascending range support) for a further potential push down to target the next supports at 107.60 and 107.10 (Fibonacci expansion levels).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 108.65 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up to retest 109.60/90 (also the descending trendline resistance in place since 24 Apr 2019 high that has capped previous bounces).

AUD/USD – Corrective rebound target almost reached at 0.6985

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  • Pushed up higher as expected and almost met the corrective rebound target/resistance at 0.6985 as per highlighted in our previous report.
  • The pair is now hovering below a key short-term pivotal resistance at 0.7010 (the former swing low areas of 07 Mar/25 Apr 2019 & a Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) with the hourly RSI oscillator coming close to an extreme overbought level at 80. Flip back to a bearish bias with 0.6935 as the downside trigger level to reinforce a potential push down to rest the 0.6860 range support.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 0.7010 negates the bearish tone for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the key medium-term resistance at 0.7065/85.

Charts are from eSignal


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