Market News & Analysis
Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 14 Mar)
Kelvin Wong March 14, 2019 12:35 PM
FX – Mix bag, watch 1.3350 key medium-term range resistance on GBP/USD
- EUR/USD – Trend bias: Push up within range. The pair has inched higher as expected and hit the first short-term resistance/target at 1.1320 (printed a high of 1.1338 in yesterday, 13 Mar U.S. session). No clear signs of short-term bearish reversal yet. Maintain bullish bias with a tightened key short-term support now at 1.1295 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 13 Mar 2019 high + minor ascending trendline from 08 Mar 2019 low) for a further potential push up to target the next intermediate resistances at 1.1360 and 1.1400 (01 Mar 2019 minor swing high area + medium-term descending trendline from 24 Sep 2018 high). On the other hand, failure to hold at 1.1295 shall negate the bullish tone for a deeper pull-back towards the next support at 1.1250/1230 (minor swing low area of 11/12 Mar 2019 + 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the entire rebound from 08 Mar 2019 low to 13 Mar 2019 high).
- GBP/USD – Trend bias: Sideways. The pair broke above the 1.3240 short-term resistance and squeezed back up towards the 1.3350 key medium-term range resistance in place since 20 Sep 2018. Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral now in short-term between 1.3350 and 1.3200 (yesterday, 13 Mar U.S. session low + minor ascending trendline from 12 Mar 2019 low). An hourly close below 1.3200 shall revive the push down within range scenario for a retest on the 1.3000/2950 support (11 Mar 2019 swing low + ascending support from 03 Jan 2019). On the other hand, a clearance with a daily close above 1.3350 opens up scope for a potential multi-week up move to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.3640/3710 in the first step. (61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous decline from 17 Apr 2018 high to 03 Jan 2019 low + former swing low area of 01 Mar 2018.
- USD/JPY – Trend bias: Sideways. The current push up from yesterday, 13 Mar U.S. session low of 110.98 has stalled at the 111.60 key short-term resistance as per highlighted in our previous report (also the minor descending trendline that has capped previous rebound since 02 Mar 2019). Mix elements now, prefer to turn neutral between 111.60 and 111.00. Only an hourly close below 111.00 shall revive the bearish scenario for a push down to retest 110.75 and below it opens up scope for another minor downleg to target the next support at 110.30/110.00 (minor swing low areas of 15/27 Feb 2019 + ascending channel support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area). On the other hand, a clearance above 111.60 sees a squeeze back up to retest the 01/05 Mar 2019 swing high area of 112.10/20.
- AUD/USD – Trend bias: Push down within range. In yesterday, 13 Mar U.S. session, the pair has challenged the 0.7090 key short-term resistance (printed an intraday high of 0.7098) before it ended the U.S. session at 0.7091 coupled with bearish daily “Hanging Man” candlestick pattern. No change, maintain bearish bias and tolerate the excess with a key short-term resistance at 0.7100 for a potential push down to target the 0.7020/0.7000 neckline support of the minor “Head & Shoulders” bearish reversal configuration in motion since 11 Jan 2019 swing high. On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7100 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7200 (the minor swing high areas of 21/27 Feb 2019 + descending trendline from 03 Dec 2018 high).
- NZD/USD - Trend bias: Push down within range. No change, maintain bearish bias below 0.6870 key short-term resistance for a further potential slide to retest the next near-term support at 0.6805/6790 (the minor congestion area of 06/09 Mar 2019). On the other hand, a clearance above 0.6870 negates the bearish tone for a push up to test 0.6900/6920 (the upper boundary of the medium-term “Symmetrical Triangle” range configuration in motion since 08 Oct 2018 low).
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