Market News & Analysis
Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 11 Apr)
Kelvin Wong April 11, 2019 11:26 AM
EUR/USD – Push up within range with 1.1285 remains as upside trigger
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- Managed to hold the 1.1240 key short-term pivotal support (also the former neckline resistance of the minor “Inverse Head & Shoulders” bullish reversal configuration) post ECB and staged the expected rebound as per highlighted in our previous report (click here for a recap).
- No major changes on its short-term key elements. Maintain bullish bias with 1.1285 as the upside trigger level and an hourly close above it reinforces a further push up to target the next intermediate resistance at 1.1316/1325 (minor swing high area of 25/26 Mar 2019, 50% Fibonacci retracement of the slide from 20 Mar 2019 high to 02 Apr 2019 low & exit target potential of the “Inverse Head & Shoulders”).
- On the other hand, an hourly close below 1.1240 negates the bullish tone for a slide back to retest 07 Mar/02 Apr 2018 swing low areas of 1.1175.
GBP/USD – 1.3120 remains the key resistance to watch
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- Yesterday’s push up has been rejected by the 1.3120 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous amid the conclusion of the U.K/EU summit to offer an extension of the Brexit deadline to end Oct 2019. No change, maintain bearish bias within a range trading environment and a break below the minor ascending trendline in place since last Fri, 05 Apr low now acting as a support at 1.3070 reinforces the potential drop to retest the 1.2980/2960 minor range support in place since 11 Mar 2019 in the first step.
- On the other hand, a break with an hourly close above 1.3120 negates the bearish tone for a further push up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3190 (former ascending range support from 03 Jan 2019 low & minor descending trendline from 13 Mar 2019 high).
click to enlarge chart
- Staged the expected slide and hit the first near-term support/target of 110.85 as per highlighted in our previous report before it staged a bounce of 30 pips to print a current intraday high of 111.13 in today, Asian session. The short-term hourly Stochastic oscillator is now coming close to an extreme overbought level which increases the risk of another minor downleg in price action.
- Maintain bearish bias with a tightened key short-term pivotal resistance now at 111.30 (minor descending trendline from 05 Apr 2019 high & 50% Fibonacci retracement of the recent slide from 05 Apr 2019 high to yesterday, 10 Apr low of 110.81) for a slide to retest 110.85 and an hourly close below it reinforces a further potential drop to target 110.50 next (also the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rebound form 25 Mar 2019 low to 05 Apr 2019 high).
- On the other hand, a break above 111.30 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards 111.80 and even 112.10 next.
AUD/USD – Risk of minor downside reversal at medium-term range resistance
click to enlarge chart
- Broke above the 0.7150 upper limit of the short-term neutrality zone as per highlighted in our previous report and it almost met the next resistance at 0.7180 (printed a high of 0.7175 in yesterday, 10 Apr U.S. session). Right now, it is hovering right below a significant resistance zone of 0.7180/7200 (the medium-term descending range resistance from 03 Dec 2018 high, swing high area of 21 Feb 2019 & a Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster) coupled with the shorter-term hourly RSI oscillator that has started to inch down from its extreme overbought level.
- Flip to a bearish bias with 0.7200 as the key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential push down to test 0.7130 and a break below it reinforces a further slide towards the 0.7060 minor range support in place since 20 Mar 2019 in the first step.
- On the other hand, a clearance above 0.7200 invalidates the bearish scenario for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7290 (31 Jan/01 Feb 2019 swing high area).
Charts are from eSignal
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