Daily FX Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Thurs 09 May)

JPY remains strong while AUD/USD at risk of bearish breakdown from key medium-term range support.

EUR/USD – Due for a potential volatility breakout


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  • Continued to trade in a tight range of 30 to 50 pips since Mon, 06 May below the 1.1215 intermediate resistance (click here for a recap on our previous report). Maintain bearish bias below 1.1260 key short-term pivotal resistance and a break below 1.1175 (minor ascending support from 26 Apr 2019 low) is likely to trigger the start of another potential impulsive downleg to retest 1.1120 before targeting 1.1060/1040 next.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.1260 invalidates the bearish scenario for a further corrective push up towards the key 1.1320 medium-term resistance.  

GBP/USD – Failure bullish breakout, further potential decline within range


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  • Broke below the 1.3040 key short-term pivotal support and reintegrated back below the descending channel resistance from 13 Mar 2019 swing high which indicated that the bullish breakout seen on last Fri, 03 May was a failure.
  • Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounces below 1.3090 key short-term pivotal resistance (50% Fibonacci retracement of on-going slide from 03 May 2019 high & former minor swing low of 06 May 2019) for a further potential push down to retest the 25 Apr 2019 low of 1.2870 follow by 1.2800 next (lower boundary of the descending channel & Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.3090 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up towards the next intermediate resistance at 1.3190.

USD/JPY – Further drop in progress


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  • Drifted down lower as expected and it now hovering right above the first support/target of 109.75 (25 Mar 2019 swing low area). No clear signs of bearish exhaustion, maintain bearish bias below a tightened key short-term resistance now at 110.30 (minor descending trendline from 03 May 2019 high & former minor swing low of 06 May 2019) for a further potential push down to target 109.45/30 follow by 108.95 next (Fibonacci expansion cluster & 31 Jan 2019 swing low area)
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 110.30 negates the bearish tone up towards the next intermediate resistance at 110.90/111.10 (06 May 2019 gapped down & pull-back resistance of the former ascending support from 03 Jan 2019 flash crash swing low area).

AUD/USD – At risk of a bearish breakdown


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  • Broke below the 0.6995 lower limit of the short-term/minor neutrality range as per highlighted in our previous report which titled the odds back to the bears for a potential bearish breakdown. Flip back to a bearish bias in any bounces below 0.7045 key short-term pivotal resistance and a 4-hour close below 0.6960 reinforces a bearish breakdown below its medium-term range support to target the next near-term support at 0.6920/10 follow by 0.6880 next.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 0.7045 invalidates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 0.7110 key medium-term resistance.

Charts are from eSignal




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