Daily Forex Technical Trend Bias/Key Levels (Tues 16 Jul)

USD/JPY remains weak while USD is holding on support against EUR, GBP & AUD.

EUR/USD – Potential push down towards minor range support


click to enlarge chart

  • The pair has pushed up towards the upper limit of the short-term neutrality range at 1.1310 as it printed a high of 1.1284 yesterday, 15 Jul. Recalled that we have turned neutral in our previous report due to mix elements (click here for a recap).
  • Right now, key elements have indicated signs of a potential short-term bearish reversal at this juncture where the price action of the pair has formed a daily bearish “Shooting Star” candlestick pattern at the end of yesterday, 15 Jul U.S. session right below the pull-back resistance of a former minor ascending support from 30 May 2019 low and the medium-term descending resistance from 10 Jan 2019 high.
  • Flip back to a bearish bias below 1.1310 key short-term pivotal resistance for a potential push down to target 1.1210 follow by the 1.1180 minor range support. However, a break with an hourly close above 1.1310 negates the bearish tone for a squeeze up to retest the 25 Jun swing high of 1.1410.

GBP/USD – Bears remain in control


click to enlarge chart

  • Yesterday’s push up in price action has managed to stall right below the 1.2590 key short-term pivotal resistance as per highlighted in our previous report (printed a high of 1.2580).
  • The bounce in price action from last week’s low has formed a bearish minor “Ascending Wedge” and yesterday’s price action has broken below its support coupled with a prior bearish divergence seen in the hourly Stochastic oscillator at its overbought region. Maintain bearish bias for a further potential push down to retest last week’s swing low at 1.2440 before targeting the next near-term support at 1.2370 (06 Apr 2017 low & Fibonacci projection).
  • However, a break with an hourly close above 1.2590 negates the bearish tone for an extension of the corrective rebound towards the next resistance at 1.2785.

USD/JPY – Further drop in progress


click to enlarge chart

  • Last Fri, 12 Jul Asian session, the pair has push up to test the 108.60 key short-term pivotal resistance highlighted in our previous report (without an hourly close above it) before it reversed down as expected.
  • Maintain bearish bias in any bounces below 108.60 key short-term pivotal resistance for a further potential push down to target the near-term supports of 107.55 and 107.10.
  • However, a break with an hourly close above 108.60 negates the bearish tone again for a squeeze up to retest the 109.00 key medium-term resistance.
AUD/USD – 0.7050 is the key resistance to watch


click to enlarge chart

  • The pair has broken above the 0.7000 key short-term pivotal resistance and drifted up to test the 0.7040/50 key medium-term resistance (also the descending trendline from 03 Dec 2018 high).
  • Bullish exhaustion elements have been sighted as this juncture; the bounce from 12 Jul 2019 low has evolved into a minor “Ascending Wedge” range configuration coupled with a bearish divergence signal seen in the hourly RSI oscillator at its overbought region.Maintain bearish bias with 0.7040/50 as the pivotal resistance and an hourly close below 0.7025 reinforces a potential push down to retest 0.6965 before targeting the minor range support of 0.6900.
  • However, a clearance with a daily close above 0.7050 invalidates the medium-term down move sequence in place since 03 Dec 2018 high for a further recovery towards the next intermediate resistance at 0.7130.

Charts are from eSignal


Disclaimer

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.