Market News & Analysis

Daily Forex Technical Strategy

EUR/USD – Corrective rebound remains in play


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  • Since its minor high of 1.1062 printed on last Fri, 11 Oct, the pair has undergone a slide of 74 pips towards the 1.0985 key short-term pivotal support as per highlighted in our previous report (click here to recap) and rebounded from it.
  • The minor corrective rebound phase in place since 01 Oct 2019 low remains intact; maintain bullish bias for a further potential push up to target the intermediate resistances 1.1070 and 1.11101 (the minor swing high area of 13 Sep 2019, Fibonacci retracement/expansion cluster & upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 01 Oct 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, a break with an hourly close below 1.0985 sees a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to retest the 1.0880 swing low area of 01 Oct 2019.

GBP/USD – Current rally looks “overextended” in the short-term


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  • The pair has rallied by close to 600 pips so far from its 10 Oct 2019 swing low area of 1.2200; its best performance since Apr 2018 on the backdrop of positive Brexit developments in the past week. It has surpassed the 1.2570 upper limit of the neutrality range zone as per highlighted in our previous report and rallied towards the breakout upside target/resistance of 1.2760 (printed an intraday high of 1.2801 yesterday, 15 Oct) as per highlighted in our previous report.
  • Right now, it is testing the upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 03 Sep 2019 low that confluences with the 1.00 Fibonacci expansion of the rebound from 03 Sep low to 20 Sep 2019 high projected from 10 Oct 2019 low coupled with a bearish divergence signal seen in the hourly RSI oscillator at its overbought region.
  • These observations suggest that the recent push up is overextended where a potential mean reversion decline below 1.2820 key short-term pivotal resistance may occur towards the near-term supports at 1.2555 and 1.2400.
  • On the other hand, an hourly close above 1.2820 sees the continuation of the up move towards the next resistance at 1.3170/3210 (1.618 Fibonacci projection of the on-going rebound from 03 Sep 2019 low & 03 Apr/03 May 2019 swing high).
USD/JPY – Further potential push up towards major resistance zone


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  • The pair has broken above 108.50 minor range resistance that has validated a further push up. Bullish bias in any dips above 108.40 key short-term pivotal support for a further potential push up to target the 109.30/50 resistance zone (01 Aug 2019 swing high, Fibonacci expansion cluster & the upper boundary of a minor ascending channel from 07 Oct 2019 low).
  • On the other hand, an hourly close below 108.40 indicates a failure bullish breakout for a slide back to retest the 106.65 support.

AUD/USD – Watch the 0.6715 minor range support


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  • The pair has evolved within the short-term neutrality range of 0.6810 and 0.6175 as per highlighted on our previous report. Maintain neutrality stance for now; only a break with an hourly close below 0.6715 sees a slide to retest the 0.6670 swing low areas of 07 Aug/01 Oct 2019 before targeting the major descending channel support at 0.6580.
  • On the flipside, a clearance with an hourly close above 0.6810 sees a further corrective rebound to retest the 12 Sep 2019 swing high area of 0.6890.

Charts are from eSignal


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