“Cyber Week” sales slip: Can Amazon (AMZN) hold $3500?

US consumers are estimated to have spent $10.7B on Cyber Monday, a -1.4% decline from last year’s reading.


Last week, hopes were running high that the critical “Cyber 5” days between Thanksgiving and Cyber Monday would show record retail sales figures, but the early results we’re seeing point to a slight disappointment. According to the Adobe Digital Economy Index, US consumers are estimated to have spent $10.7B on Cyber Monday, a -1.4% decline from last year’s reading. This comes on the back of a similarly slight decline in Black Friday spending, which is estimated to have fallen to $8.9B from $9.0B last year.

So what happened? Why are consumers reining in spending?

Well, for one, they may not be spending less, but rather spending earlier. According to the same Adobe Digital Economy figures, online consumer spending through the first four weeks of November actually rose over 20% this year to $7.6B! In other words, US consumers appear to have accelerated their purchases to earlier in the month to avoid the risk of shipping delays amidst the ongoing global supply chain disruptions.

In a related development, retailers have been more cautious about offering deep discounts as their own costs are rising. According to Salesforce, the average Cyber Week discount for all the goods it tracks was 23%, down from 30%+ in previous years. With less dramatic price cuts than in previous years, consumers may have opted to hold off on big ticket purchases at the margin.

Finally, it’s worth noting that these so-called “real time” measures of sales data are notoriously volatile and prone to revisions, so readers should take any early analysis with a big grain of salt; in fact, there are even some alternative estimates that this weekend’s retail sales have risen modestly relative to past years. Regardless, it looks like this year’s Cyber 5 sales were not the blowout figures some analysts were expecting, and that, along with the uncertainty around the Omicron variant, has traders exercising caution this week.

Market impact

Of course, when any time you’re talking about online sales, the proverbial elephant in the room is Amazon.com (AMZN). Despite a strong year for the overall indices, the massive retailer is trading unchanged from its September 2020 peak after failing to garner any meaningful momentum over the last 15 months.

Moving forward, the key level to watch for AMZN will be around $3500. This critical area served as resistance for prices through the first half of the year, then support in mid-July, then resistance again in September, and now appears to be providing a modicum of support for “The Everything Store.” If the $3500 area is conclusively broken, AMZN could quickly fall toward its 200-day EMA near $3350 next.



Source: StoneX, TradingView

How to trade with City Index

You can trade with City Index by following these four easy steps:

  1. Open an account, or log in if you’re already a customer 

    Open an account in the UK
    Open an account in Australia
    Open an account in Singapore

  2. Search for the company you want to trade in our award-winning platform 
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels 
  4. Place the trade


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.