Market News & Analysis


Top Story

Coronavirus: Potential Signs of Containment and Key Markets to Watch

This week, traders have been weighing generally optimistic signs from massive US technology companies against the continued spread of coronavirus. So far, coronavirus fears are winning out, as seen by the week-to-date drop in major global indices and rally in traditional safe havens like gold and bonds. That said, the situation is far from resolved, so we wanted to take a look at the raw numbers and highlight different market opportunities for traders to examine.

While the total number of infections and deaths continue to grow, it’s worth noting that the percentage growth rate of those figures have shifted lower in recent days. Reviving and expanding our rough, “naïve growth” coronavirus model from earlier this week, we can see that the growth rate of infections and deaths on mainland China has shifted down to “only” around 25-30% over the last two days:

Source: Chinese Health Commission, GAIN Capital.

Reiterating that I’m not an epidemiologist and this is far from an exhaustive model, there are tentative signs that Chinese authorities may be slowing the growth rate of the infection, a critical step toward ultimately containing it. Early data from other countries is even more optimistic, with no deaths reported in other countries. We’ll continue to monitor these developments in the coming days, as any new outbreaks in other countries or reacceleration in growth would be very worrisome.

Market Implications

Based on the general recovery in risk assets since Monday’s swoon, traders are taking a similar cautiously optimistic view toward the virus’s spread. At this point, it’s premature to speculate on the ultimate economic impact, but this quarter’s growth is likely to slow sharply with many heavily-populated regions of mainland China on lockdown during the critical New Year holiday. The SARS epidemic of 2003 reportedly shaved 1-2% off China’s GDP growth, and coronavirus has likely already eclipsed the total number of infections from SARS (though early indications of the death rate are lower).

Rather than wait for the official economic figures, traders have aggressively sold Chinese assets, with USD/CNH retesting the key 7.00 level and the FTSE China A50 Index shedding about 12% over the last two weeks:

Source: TradingView, GAIN Capital.

As we noted earlier this week, individual equities and markets could provide additional trading opportunities in the days and weeks to come.

Assets likely to be correlated with the spread of coronavirus:

  • Gold
  • Bonds
  • “Safe haven” currencies (JPY, CHF, and USD)
  • Medical safety equipment stocks (LAKE, APT, etc)
  • Certain pharmaceutical stocks (BCRX, GILD, INO, MRNA, NVAX)

Markets likely to be inversely correlated with the spread of coronavirus:

  • Oil
  • Growth-sensitive currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD, etc)
  • Global stocks (emerging markets in particular)
  • Airline stocks (DAL, AAL, UAL, CEA, ZNH, etc)
  • Other travel-related stocks (MAR, H, HLT, CCL, RCL, NCLH, etc)
  • Consumer good stocks (DIS, SBUX, NKE, etc)

*Please note that not all of these markets are available in all regions.


Disclaimer

This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit cityindex.com.sg for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

Important Notice:

Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender currency and trading of derivatives on Cryptocurrencies are currently not covered under any regulatory regime in Singapore. Consequently, investors should be aware they do not have protection under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Please ensure that you are fully aware of the risks.