Central Bank speakers undermine EUR/USD
Tony Sycamore January 14, 2021 12:45 PM
After a sharp rise in yields during the first two weeks of January, US interest rate markets remain front and centre. In yesterday’s article, we noted the efforts of four Fed officials to ease worries that the Fed may soon begin to commence tapering.
This highlights policymaker's sensitivity to rising rates and their determination to keep rates pinned at ultra-low levels for an extended period. Which makes comments by the Federal Reserve Vice Chair Clarida during a speech late in the New York Session all the more baffling.
Clarida said that the Fed will not hike rates until inflation gets to “2% for a year”.
While some have welcomed the guidance that this statement provides it would pay to remember that the Feds preferred measure of inflation, Core PCE is currently near 1.4%. It could easily reach 2% in coming months as pent up demand is released upon the arrival of warmer weather and as the vaccine rollout reaches more people.
Whether Clarida’s statement will be corrected in coming sessions remains to be seen. However, the EUR/USD does not appear to be taking any chances as it eased back below 1.2200 overnight, already on the back foot after ECB President Lagarde again noted the ECB is monitoring exchange rate movements very carefully.
The chart below shows the recent pullback has created technical damage to the uptrend following the EUR/USD’s fall below the trendline support at 1.2250, coming from the November 1.1602 low.
From here, a break/close below near-term support 1.2130/10ish would warn the next leg lower of the pullback towards medium-term support 1.2050/00 is unfolding. Providing the pullback displays corrective qualities and signs of stabilisation emerge near 1.2000, it will be viewed as a buying opportunity, in anticipation of the EUR/USD uptrend resuming.
Keeping in mind, should the EUR/USD break and close below 1.2000ish, it would negate the medium-term bullish bias and warn that a deeper pullback is unfolding.
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