Market News & Analysis

Top Story

Australian Dollar in the Hot Seat

In a few hours, Australia will release their employment data for October, with the Unemployment Rate expected to downtick from 5.3% in September to 5.2%.  However, the key figure will be the employment change, with expectations of an increase of 18,000 jobs in October vs an increase of 14,700 in September.  Australia does something nice for us;  they breakdown the headline number between full-time jobs and part-time jobs.  This distinction gives a clearer picture of how the overall job market is doing.  Expectations for October are for an increase of 34,000 full-time jobs and a decrease of 16,000 part-time jobs!  These expectations are both better than September’s numbers.  If these numbers come out as expected, full-time jobs will be increasing and part-time jobs will be decreasing MoM!  Australia could use some positive data, as the US-China trade deal headlines have mainly been the driver of the Australian Dollar.  Earlier today, “sources” said that US-China trade talks have hit a snag. 

AUD/USD has closed down the last 4 days (although the range has only been about 80 pips over that period).  Recent highs were near horizontal resistance at .6913. The pair spiked through that level 4 days in a row earlier this month, however could not close above the resistance.  Perhaps that was because of the downward sloping trendline just above at near .6935 and the 200-day moving average at .6942. Could the employment data be the catalyst to reverse that and help propel the pair to new highs? 

Source: Tradingview, City Index

On a 240-minute timeframe, AUD/USD is trying to hold the bottom trendline of rising channel near .6832.  This price coincides with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level from the lows on October 2nd to the highs on October 31st.  If price breaks lower, first support is horizontal support near .6810 down to .6800, which is the 50% retracement of the previously mentioned timeframe.  This is also a psychological support level, as it is a nice round number (which markets seem to pay attention to).  There is a falling wedge within the channel that has formed on the 240-minute chart.  If price breaks out to the top side, the target for the breakout of a falling wedge is a 100% retracement, which would be right at the horizontal resistance on the daily timeframe at .6913.  Above that, watch for the resistance levels mentioned on the daily timeframe.

Source: Tradingview, City Index

When the Australian Employment data is released, make sure to dig deeper into the headline data and look at the number of full-time jobs created vs the number of part-time jobs created.   The difference could be a reason the AUD/USD will go bid or sell off!


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

Important Notice:

Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender currency and trading of derivatives on Cryptocurrencies are currently not covered under any regulatory regime in Singapore. Consequently, investors should be aware they do not have protection under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Please ensure that you are fully aware of the risks.