Australian ASX200 earnings preview BHP

Mining and metals giant BHP Group Ltd (BHP) is a diversified natural resources company that sits among the world’s top producers of major commodities, including iron ore, metallurgical coal, and copper. BHP also has substantial interests in oil, gas, and coal.


A multinational and dual-listed company, BHP is headquartered in Melbourne and is the second-largest listed company on the ASX behind CBA. BHP is due to report its full-year numbers tomorrow, the 17th of August at 5.00pm AEST.

Expectations for BHP are running high after Rio Tinto posted a record first-half profit of $US12.1 billion and a $US9.1 billion dividend in late July, boosted by record prices for iron ore.

Although iron ore accounts for only 60% of BHPs earnings, other parts of the business have benefited from booming commodities prices prompting analysts to increase their profit and dividend expectations for BHP. 

Consensus expectations are for BHP to pay a final dividend of US 204c or A$2.75 per share. With the interim dividend of A$1.31, this would take the full-year payout to A$4.06 per share, putting BHP on a yield of 7.6% based on the current price of $53.42.

In terms of guidance, most analysts expect the iron ore price to fall further as the world’s largest producer, Brazilian miner Vale, boosts supply back towards pre-Covid levels, and second and third-tier miners add to global output. 

While on the demand side of the equation, China, the buyer of 98% of Brazilian and Australian iron ore, continues to pressure steel makers into limiting production and is tackling an outbreak of Covid19. 

Longer-term, Chinese-driven investment in new iron ore mines in West Africa and rising scrap metal supplies that reduce demand for iron ore will be a handbrake to the fortunes of BHP, Rio, and Fortescue as the price of iron ore slides back towards $140 p/t.

Technically, BHP is trading in an uptrend coming from the March 2020 $24.05 low. Resistance is viewed at the late July $54.55 high and above that at $57.50 coming from trend channel resistance. On the downside, initial support is at $50.00 before trend channel support at $45.50. 

BHP Daily Chart

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of the 16th of August 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

More from ASX


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.