ASX200 hits resistance - what comes next?
Tony Sycamore November 23, 2020 11:40 AM
A G20 draft statement over the weekend that pledged to pay for the distribution of vaccines around the world, reports that “frontline” American workers may receive a virus vaccine by mid-December, and signs that Congressional Democratic leaders would push for a Covid19 relief package before year-end helped the ASX200 to a nine-month high this morning.
After an almost 11% gain during November, the ASX200 has all but erased all its losses for the year, benefitting from the global rotation away from tech stocks into value stocks including financials, energy, and the resource stocks that are so plentiful in the ASX200.
Also helping the ASX200 higher, a run of better than expected economic data including last week’s jobs report, a trend that is expected to continue into year-end as the Victorian re-opening gains traction.
As well as Australia’s continued success in containing the pandemic in sharp contrast to a worrying uptick in new cases in Asian countries including Japan and Hong Kong and the continued surge in new cases in the U.S.
As regular readers would know, following the break out of the top of its five-month range, our expectation has been for the ASX200 to push higher towards 6800 into year-end. If anything, after this month’s stunning rally, 6800 appears now to be a touch on the conservative side.
For this reason, despite the ASX200 closing in a good layer of horizontal resistance at 6600 and starting to look overbought in the short term according to the RSI indicator, we will resist the urge to take any profits off the table, ahead of a likely pullback into late November/early December.
Instead, we choose to focus on the prospect of a higher ASX200 courtesy of supportive monetary and fiscal policy as well as the imminent arrival of an effective vaccine to power the global economic reopening in 2021.
We would only reconsider the medium-term bullish view on a break and close back below support 6200/6170ish.
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