ASX200 caught in cross currents ahead of key capex and retail sales data

A dark day in Sydney today, both from a weather perspective and as a record 919 new covid cases, were reported in the 24 hours until 8 pm last night. According to Goldman Sachs, the worsening situation will push the timeline for a gradual re-opening in Sydney until late October and Melbourne until Mid-September.

Stocks (2)

Offsetting the gloomy news, NSW hit its target of 6 million jabs yesterday. Providing the current record pace of vaccinations is maintained, the Government’s 70-80% vaccination target will be reached in mid-November.

Further boosting sentiment, a bounce in key commodities after the PBOC yesterday eased growth concerns with a commitment to stabilize credit and money supply to business. And news that China achieved zero new COVID cases, opening the door for a relaxation of restrictions and reducing tail risks to the slowing Chinese economy. 

Returning to local events and reporting season aside, tomorrow brings the release of Q2 Private Capex data. The expectation is for a 2.5% q/q lift in private investment. Offset by a fall in the accompanying third estimate of FY2021–22 collected through July and August when business confidence plunged due to lockdowns. 

Further evidence of the impact of the lockdown will be seen on Friday when retail sales for July are released. Estimates there range for a fall between -4% and -8% m/m. 

Turning to the charts after rejecting trend channel resistance at 7630 in Mid-August, the ASX200 tested and held horizontal support ahead of 7400. The recovery from the 7429 low is likely to be the second leg (Wave b) of a three-wave corrective sequence that should see a final leg lower (Wave c) towards trend channel support near 7300 in the coming weeks, as displayed on the chart below. 

ASX200 Daily Chart

Source Tradingview. The figures stated areas of August 25th, 2021. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. This report does not contain and is not to be taken as containing any financial product advice or financial product recommendation

More from ASX


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.