Asian Open: Traders Are Their Most Bearish on AUD Futures on Record

An extremely dovish RBA has seen net-short exposure on the Aussie hit a new record. Yet the move lacks conviction as we continue to see both long and short bets decline.

Charts (2)

Asian Futures:

  • Australia’s ASX 200 futures are down -47 points (-0.635%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 7356.7
  • Japan's Nikkei 225 futures are down 0 points (0%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 30500.05
  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng futures are down -98 points (-0.39%), the cash market is currently estimated to open at 24822.76

European Friday close:

  • UK's FTSE 100 index fell -63.84 points (-0.91%) to close at 6963.64
  • Europe's  Euro STOXX 50  index fell -39.03 points (-0.94%) to close at 4130.84
  • Germany's DAX  index fell -161.58 points (-1.03%) to close at 15490.17
  • France's CAC 40 index fell -52.4 points (-0.79%) to close at 6570.19

US Friday close:

  • The Dow Jones fell -166.42 points (-0.48%) to close at 34,584.88
  • The S&P 500 fell -40.76 points (-0.92%) to close at 4,432.99
  • The Nasdaq 100 fell -182.436 points (-1.18%) to close at 15,333.47

Learn how to trade indices


Rising treasury yields saw Wall Street close sharply lower on Friday. The Nasdaq 100 led the declines, falling -1.18%, the S&P 500 fell -0.91% and the Dow Jones Industrial was down -0.48%. Corporate tax hikes and rising delta cases continued to weigh on sentiment, despite strong economic data coming through last week. The S&P 500 closed just above its 200-day eMA and fell for a 2nd consecutive week.

It’s a busy week for markets with the highly anticipated FOMC meeting on Wednesday, BOJ also meet earlier on Wednesday, BOE meet on Thursday and we have a host of flash PMI data to also look forward to.

The ASX 200 printed a bearish engulfing candle on Friday and closed below its 50-day eMA. It seems probable that a swing high was seen on Thursday at 7440.1, so we now want to see prices move lower in line with its bearish break of trend support on September 9th.

ASX 200 Market Internals

ASX 200: 7403.7 (-0.75%), 19 September 2021

  • 4 out of the 11 sectors closed higher
  • 7 out of the 11 sectors closed lower
  • 73 (36.50%) stocks advanced, 118 (59.00%) stocks declined
  • 68% of stocks closed above their 200-day average
  • 60% of stocks closed above their 50-day average
  • 44.5% of stocks closed above their 20-day average


  • + 6.30%   -  Redbubble Ltd  (RBL.AX) 
  • + 6.21%   -  Pointsbet Holdings Ltd  (PBH.AX) 
  • + 5.89%   -  Atlas Arteria Group  (ALX.AX) 


  • -11.4%   -  Fortescue Metals Group Ltd  (FMG.AX) 
  • -10.7%   -  Iress Ltd  (IRE.AX) 
  • -8.78%   -  Iluka Resources Ltd  (ILU.AX) 


The US dollar continued to rise on Friday ahead of this week’s FOMC meeting, where there are some expectations for the Fed to announce tapering. The US dollar index (DXY) rose 0.28% and found support at 92.75 after printing a bullish engulf candle on Thursday.

USD/CHF closed above 0.93 for the first time since April. With bullish range expansion now underway following several weeks of choppy price action, we suspect it could now be heading for 0.94.

GBP/USD broke trend support on the daily chart and is now probing the 1.3727 low, bringing the 1.3600 handle into focus for bears.

GBP/JPY has fallen for 4 consecutive days, having printed a bearish engulfing candle which failed to close above trend resistance to confirm a breakout. Support has been found around 150.83, although Friday’s bearish candle suggests a lower high is in place so we’re now waiting for a break of support to confirm a resumption of its downtrend.

Learn how to trade forex

From the Weekly COT Report (Commitment of Traders)

From Tuesday

  • Net-long exposure to the USD fell -$1.1 billion, down to $9.55 billion according to calculations from IMM.
  • Traders increased their net-short exposure to AUD futures to their most bearish level on record. However, both long and short bets continued to decline with bears closing -6.5k short bets and bulls closing -6.5k longs.
  • Large speculators were net-long GBP futures for the first time in 4-weeks, with 14.8k longs added and -14.5 shorts closed.
  • Traders flipped to net-short exposure on platinum futures.
  • Net-long exposure on NZD futures rose to a 16-week high as traders speculate a rate rise from RBNZ.


Silver continued to fall on Friday with spot prices hitting their lowest level since November. However, volatility on Friday was notably lower so there’s a decent chance the November low will hold as support, at least initially.

Oil prices continued to retrace on Friday, although not at an alarming rate. The trend structure on WTI futures remains bullish above $67 on the daily chart although we’d expect $70 to hold as support of this bullish trend is to be believed.

Up Next (Times in AEST)

You can view all the scheduled events for today using our economic calendar, and keep up to date with the latest market news and analysis here.

How to trade with City Index

Follow these easy steps to start trading with City Index today:

  1. Open a City Index account, or log-in if you’re already a customer.
  2. Search for the market you want to trade in our award-winning platform.
  3. Choose your position and size, and your stop and limit levels.
  4. Place the trade.

More from Commodities


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the StoneX group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

StoneX Financial Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.