Market News & Analysis

Top Story

A short pause before Round Three

Sterling buyers are preparing for ‘Meaningful Vote Round three’.

100-odd pips have been trimmed from sterling/dollar nine-month highs and similar off euro/pound’s two-year best. That’s ‘cruise control’ relative to this week’s gyrations, the biggest since 2017. But it’s a sign that despite slumping hedging demand, market sangfroid only goes so deep.

High probability of another Brexit deal defeat does not preclude more harsh trading conditions. The market, like Westminster, doesn’t quite know what it believes; Friday’s open was below Thursday’s close. As the old American saying goes: ‘stand for something, or you’ll fall for anything’. So will sterling. Partly because it’s difficult to project a clear view from Parliament next week, even after the government’s ultimatum to expect “a significantly longer” extension if the deal is voted down again.

The EU’s 21st-22nd March summit, which is unlikely to re-open backstop discussions, will be followed by a way-finder vote days before Britain’s planned exit. 3D impenetrability means the pound can’t stay on cruise control for long.

Chart thoughts: GBP/USD

  • Settles into a $1.3340-$1.3094 range, though the destruction of a 48-hour uptrend in itself reflects the end of optimal conditions for bulls
  • That said, so long as the range is intact, logically, drama will be limited
  • Possible incursions above the topside are hinted at by short-term up-creep by shorter and medium-term oscillators
  • Over the short horizon, offers will be more intense at Thursday’s $1.333 intermediate peak, reducing odds of another look at the $1.3383 top
  • Below $1.3094 would herald extended downside

Price chart: sterling/U.S. dollar - hourly

Source: Refinitiv/City Index


This report is intended for general circulation only. It should not be construed as a recommendation, or an offer (or solicitation of an offer) to buy or sell any financial products. The information provided does not take into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. Before you act on any recommendation that may be contained in this report, independent advice ought to be sought from a financial adviser regarding the suitability of the investment product, taking into account your specific investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd., may distribute reports produced by its respective foreign entities or affiliates within the GAIN Capital group of companies or third parties pursuant to an arrangement under Regulation 32C of the Financial Advisers Regulations. Where the report is distributed to a person in Singapore who is not an accredited investor, expert investor or an institutional investor (as defined in the Securities Futures Act), GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. accepts legal responsibility to such persons for the contents of the report only to the extent required by law. Singapore recipients should contact GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. at 6826 9988 for matters arising from, or in connection with the report.

In the case of all other recipients of this report, to the extent permitted by applicable laws and regulations neither GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. nor its associated companies will be responsible or liable for any loss or damage incurred arising out of, or in connection with, any use of the information contained in this report and all such liability is hereby expressly disclaimed. No representation or warranty is made, express or implied, that the content of this report is complete or accurate.

GAIN Capital Singapore Pte. Ltd. is not under any obligation to update this report.

Trading CFDs and FX on margin carries a high level of risk that may not be suitable for some investors. Consider your investment objectives, level of experience, financial resources, risk appetite and other relevant circumstances carefully. The possibility exists that you could lose some or all of your investments, including your initial deposits. If in doubt, please seek independent expert advice. Visit for the complete Risk Disclosure Statement.

Important Notice:

Cryptocurrencies are not legal tender currency and trading of derivatives on Cryptocurrencies are currently not covered under any regulatory regime in Singapore. Consequently, investors should be aware they do not have protection under the Securities and Futures Act (Cap. 289). Please ensure that you are fully aware of the risks.