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Bad news for long bond bulls following bearish break
Long bond bulls will not like the message coming from the recent price action in the TLT ETF, warning of the potential for higher yields and increased capital losses. With little technical support below where it currently sits, it places even more importance on the Fed chooses to signal this week.
The US dollar could be undervalued if commodities continue to rip higher
Commodities are soaring, and of they continue to do so the US dollar could be undervalued as the case for any Fed cuts could evaporate.
AUD/USD, USD/JPY in focus for RBA and BOJ meetings: Asian Open
1-day implied volatility for USD/JPY has risen to 320% of its 20-day average ahead of today's BOJ meeting, to show volatility is expected. And the best chance of AUD/USD enjoying its own volatility is if the RBA finally ditch their hawkish bias.
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FOMC Meeting Preview: Deciphering the Dot Dilemma for the Fed
FOMC meeting risks are skewed toward a less dovish outcome, with the potential for the median Fed dot for 2024 to rise to 4.9%, or only two interest rate cuts for 2024.
Crude oil analysis Strong Chinese demand fuels rally
Crude oil analysis: China set to import record volumes of Russian oil in March, as oil extends weekly breakout ahead of a busy week for financial markets.
Nasdaq 100 Forecast: QQQ rises on Google, Apple AI chatter
US stocks are pointing to a stronger open, with tech stocks outperforming. Reports that Alphabet's Google and Apple are in talks to include Google's AI Gemini feature in iPhones has boosted the mood. Nvidia's annual developers conference will also kick off today. While tech news is lifting the mood, attention is also on the Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday, where the Fed could adopt a more hawkish stance given the sticky nature of inflation.
USD/JPY analysis: BoJ and FOMC Meetings Key Focus in Financial Markets – Currency Pair of the Week
The USD/JPY will face a major test in the week ahead, with both the Bank of Japan and US Federal Reserve set to make monetary policy decisions a day apart. The USD/JPY has managed to recover strongly, rising from around 146.50 to above 149.00 in a few days. The recovery has been driven in part because of a rebound in bond yields a stronger dollar.
EUR/USD, FTSE Forecast: Two trades to watch
EUR/USD looks to Eurozone inflation data ahead of the FOMC rate decision. FTSE struggles on central bank jitters, and after China data,
Crude oil consolidates bullish break, gold heavy after record run
How many rate cuts the Federal Reserve signals for 2024 could have an outsized impact on how commodities such as crude oil and gold perform longer-term.
GBP/USD hints at sentiment extreme ahead of BOE, FOMC: COT report
With a BOE and FOMC meeting pending and net-long exposure for GBP/USD at or near a sentiment extreme, I cannot help but wonder if the pound it due at least a pullback. I also take a closer look at the US dollar index (DXY), gold and the Nasdaq 100.
Nikkei 225 longs favoured into BOJ and Fed rate decisions, Nvidia GPU conference
Recent price action in Nikkei 225 futures points to upside risks this week, indicating confidence among traders that even with major events such as rate decisions from the Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve, along with Nvidia’s GPU Technology Conference, the bull market that helped propel the underlying index to record highs is anything but finished.
USD/CAD weekly forecast: Pair could rise further with CAD CPI, Fed rate decision due
USD/CAD rose last week and could extend those gains towards 1.36 as attention turns to Canada CPI and the Federal Reserve monetary policy meeting.
AUD/USD weekly outlook: RBA, AU employment at the helm
AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, GBP/AUD and AUD/CHF could get caught on the crossfire between the RBA, BOJ, FOMC, BOE and SNB meetings next week.
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